abstract


Arid/semi-arid region in Northeast Asia has been suffering from climate change due to the global warming. Cold season temperature has been rapidly increasing in recent years, especially during the cold season. Dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model is one of the methods to evaluate the regional-scale climate change with high resolution. In this study, numerical experiments were carried out in order to reproduce past and future regional climate condition in Mongolia for the use of environmental studies in RAISE project (Sugita, 2002). A modified version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System developed at Terrestrial Environment Research Center, University of Tsukuba (TERC-RAMS) was adopted to simulate hydrometeorological condition with 30 km horizontal resolution. Spatio-temporal features in ten-year integration for 1994-2003 were compared with local observations obtained during RAISE (The Rangelands Atmosphere-hydrosphere-biosphere Interaction Study Experiment in northeastern Asia; Sugita, 2002) project. Seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation were well reproduced in the TERC-RAMS although cold-season temperature and precipitation were overestimated.
Downscale experiments nested within the global warming test runs of general circulation model for 2071-2080 period indicated the possible climate change in Northeast Asia including Mongolia. One-hour interval dataset of model variables in both recent and future climate integrations will be provided to the research community. Variety of impact assessment such as on agricultural production, ground water, and carbon cycle can be possible by the use of this dataset.